In a recent article in Aeon magazine, Elon Musk tells us that he figures it will take about a million people to properly colonize Mars. He has in mind a design for a giant spaceship, the “Mars Colonial Transporter,” to facilitate the task.
And lest you think that Mr. Musk is just another techno-geek keener with a shaky grip on reality, no. This is the guy who sold PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion, then went on to successfully compete with corporate behemoth General Motors by designing and marketing the Tesla electric car. Currently he heads up SpaceX, a startup dedicated to said colonization of Mars, a company that has a contract with NASA to transport astronauts to the International Space Station. He’s the real deal.
Musk sees the colonization of the red planet as a stepping stone to exploration of the rest of our solar system, and ultimately interstellar space. He imagines the million colonists in place within a century, the first bunch taking up residence there around 2040.
As a species, we have been journeying out beyond the horizon for about as long as we’ve been mobile. Always willing, despite obvious dangers, to explore unknown territories, then ‘settle’ them, before allowing others to move on again, into the alien. This urge to migrate, to reconnoiter strange lands and then inhabit them is one of the true hallmarks of humankind. No other species has spread so far and wide on the planet, and done it with such aplomb.
And so, for us, outer space is of course “the next frontier.”
The obstacles this time are no less considerable than they were on terra firma. Mars once had an atmosphere; probably surface water too, but these days it’s a distinctly harsh environment; exposed to it you’d last less than 30 seconds. Colonist’s quarters there will be close, and extremely stress-inducing. It will be a bleak, constricted adventure, and very few will care to go, given that it’s a one-way ticket.
Getting there, however, is relatively easy, compared to interstellar space travel. The nearest star, called Alpha Centauri, is four light years away. Sounds encouraging—if we can even approach the speed of light the trip might take less than four years for the astronauts to arrive, if Einstein was right about speed shortening time. The problem is the energy needed for the journey; it seems it is physically impossible that the spaceship could carry enough onboard fuel. Scientists have imagined ‘solar sails’ which will capture the streaming energy of the sun, a solar wind, if you will. Then there’s the need for enough food for the trip, the immense psychological pressure of isolation lasting that long, the health problems that come with weightlessness, the difficulty of communication with home, exposure to hazardous radiation, and more. Again scientists have ideas to meet all these challenges, but they are highly theoretical. None of them are anywhere near practical realization.
And of course there is the possibility of robotic exploration of space, but that’s not the same is it. Where’s the adventure in that? No robot can ever be a hero, not without a lot of misplaced anthropomorphism.
No, for all intents and purposes, our days of exploration are over. There are no more truly wild places left upon Mother Earth, and our chances of sallying forth into outer space, at least for the very indefinite future, are essentially nil. As William Gibson has pointed out, no one will speak of ‘the twenty-second century’ the way we used to of the twenty-first.
It’s a necessary, perhaps mythic shift in consciousness with consequences yet to be determined. Obviously it behooves us to take good care of the planet, given that it’s the only abode any of us will ever have. But it also suggests that we should better appreciate the miraculous coincidence of life on ‘the pale blue dot.’ Just as interstellar travel may never happen, so too we may never discover life elsewhere in the universe.
This is it folks. We’re staying home tonight, and likely forever. Fate will find us where we are.